4
Active
Theaters
Theaters
—
Live Alerts
From Channel
From Channel
85%
Scenario
Coverage
Coverage
3 / 10
Black Swan
Precursors Active
Precursors Active
Live Channel Alerts
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Sample Intelligence — Cycle 002 SAMPLE DATA
Critical // Fact14:22 UTC
Rubio confirms ground operation planning to Congress to seize Iran's enriched uranium stockpile
Assessment // 72%12:08 UTC
Energy infrastructure targeting signals air campaign alone insufficient to achieve US-Israel objectives
Scenario // Rising09:44 UTC
China material support scenario 22% and rising — rare earth ban assessed as opening move
Fact // Confirmed06:15 UTC
Mojtaba Khamenei formally assumes Supreme Leader role — IRGC hardline faction now dominant
Iran Theater — Scenario Probabilities
Iran — Operation Epic Fury
Prolonged Air Campaign / Limited Ceasefire
Regime Fracture / Internal Collapse
Negotiated Nuclear Freeze
Regional War Expansion
Nuclear Deterrence Signal
Black Swan Precursor Tracker
3 / 10 Active
⚠ Alert Threshold Reached
⚠ Alert Threshold Reached
Nuclear force posture changes detected
Elite political defections / disappearances
IAEA access fully denied — uranium stockpile
Emergency diplomatic evacuations
Abnormal military mobilization signals
Financial sanctions on major institutions
Market Impact — Current Exposure
Live Assessment // Cycle 002
Brent Crude
↑ +27% since Day 1
Strait of Hormuz
⚠ Effectively closed
Red Sea routes
↑ Insurance +340%
Defense equities (RTX, LMT)
↑ Elevated
Rare Earth / Tech supply
⚠ China ban active
USD safe haven
↑ Strong
The Big Three — Scenario Snapshot
The Big Three
Managed Friction / Strategic Patience
China Crosses Material Support Threshold
Russia Escalates to Active Support
Taiwan Contingency Window Opens
Great Power Diplomatic Reset
Intel Feed — All Signals // Cycle 002
Critical // Fact14:22 UTC
Rubio confirms ground operation planning to Congress — target: Iran's 441kg enriched uranium stockpile
Assessment // 72%12:08 UTC
Energy infrastructure targeting pattern signals air campaign alone insufficient to achieve stated objectives within US political window
Scenario // Rising09:44 UTC
China material support threshold scenario at 22% and rising — rare earth export ban assessed as opening move in graduated escalation
Fact // Confirmed06:15 UTC
Mojtaba Khamenei formally assumes Supreme Leader role — IRGC hardline faction assessed as now dominant
Assessment // 65%04:30 UTC
Russia satellite intelligence provision to Iran confirmed — not yet crossing into direct military participation
Full Scenario Tables — All Theaters // Cycle 002
All probabilities sum to ≤85% per theater. 15% reserved for black swan events.
Probability change constraints: ±10pp per cycle unless trigger event logged in Forecast Log.
Iran — Operation Epic Fury
Prolonged Air Campaign / Limited Ceasefire
Regime Fracture / Internal Collapse
Negotiated Nuclear Freeze
Regional War Expansion
Nuclear Deterrence Signal
The Big Three — Strategic Competition
Managed Friction / Strategic Patience
China Crosses Material Support Threshold
Russia Escalates to Active Support
Taiwan Contingency Window Opens
Great Power Diplomatic Reset
Actor Status — Cycle 002
Israel — IDF / Netanyahu
Offensive air campaign. Ground op against uranium sites under active planning. Coordinating with US CENTCOM.
Iran — Khamenei II
Defensive. New leadership consolidating. IRGC semi-autonomous. Nuclear facilities partially dispersed. 440kg uranium unverified.
United States — CENTCOM
Active combat support. 6 KIA confirmed. Ground op planning confirmed by Rubio to Congress.
IRGC
Operating semi-autonomously post-Khamenei. Hardline faction dominant. Protecting uranium stockpile. Controlling proxy decisions.
Russia — Putin
Providing satellite intelligence to Iran. Not yet direct military participation. Watching US capacity commitments carefully.
China — Xi
Rare earth ban initiated. Assessed approaching material support threshold. Xi-Trump summit outcome on watch list.
Houthis — Ansar Allah
Continuing Red Sea commercial shipping attacks. Awaiting Iran command for escalation. Ballistic missile capability intact.
Hezbollah — Lebanon
Degraded from 2024-25 conflict. Partial reconstruction underway. Holding back from full activation pending Iran instruction.
Saudi Arabia
Quietly supportive of Iranian weakening. Providing basing access to US. Concerned about oil infrastructure exposure.
All Alerts — Cycle 002
Critical // WMD Risk Elevated // 14:22 UTC
US & Israel planning ground op to seize Iran's 441kg enriched uranium — Rubio confirms to Congress. 3 independent sources confirmed.
FACT — Reuters, AP, Congressional record
Significant // Assessment // 12:08 UTC
Energy phase targeting signals air campaign alone insufficient. Contained conflict probability revised 45% → 31% this cycle.
ASSESSMENT — 72% confidence — 4 analyst sources
Watch Item // Scenario Rising // 09:44 UTC
China material support threshold scenario at 22% and rising. Rare earth ban assessed as opening move in graduated escalation.
ASSESSMENT — Watch: Xi-Trump summit outcome
Past Reports — Notion Archive
Notion Integration
002
Iran — Op Epic Fury // PM Cycle Report
→
001
Iran — Op Epic Fury // AM Cycle Report
→
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Forecast Log — Probability History
Append-only log of all scenario probability changes. Every shift ≥1pp is recorded with the trigger event and analyst note. Brier scoring begins at Cycle 003 — accuracy tracked against resolved outcomes.
CycleScenarioFromToTrigger
002
Contained Conflict — Iran
45%
31% ↓
Rubio confirms ground op
002
China Material Support
14%
22% ↑
Rare earth ban initiated
002
Regime Fracture — Iran
12%
18% ↑
Khamenei II confirmed
001
Negotiated Nuclear Freeze
22%
15% ↓
Air campaign Day 1
Showing Cycles 001–002 // Full log will expand as cycles accumulate
Telegram Alerts Feed — @GCII_alerts_bot
Live feed from your GCII Alerts Bot. Displaying latest messages from your channel.
Messages are classified automatically by keyword — CRITICAL, WARNING, or standard intel.
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Custom Intelligence Report
Theater / Conflict Zone
Cycle
AM / PM
Raw Intelligence Digest
Generated Report Output
Structured intelligence report will appear here.
Paste a digest and hit Generate.
Output is formatted for direct Notion import.
Paste a digest and hit Generate.
Output is formatted for direct Notion import.
Output follows Clearline format: source tagging (FACT / ASSESSMENT / ESTIMATE / SPECULATION), actor logic, scenario probability recalibration, and change log. Ready for Notion paste.